The 2026 monsoon forecast indicates an early arrival, potentially providing relief from extreme heat in southern India. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests that the southwest monsoon could begin as soon as late May. This timing is critical, especially given that maximum temperatures in parts of India are expected to reach between 43 and 44 degrees Celsius during April.
Specifically, the monsoon is anticipated to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 18 and May 25. Following this, Kerala and southern districts of Tamil Nadu may experience above-normal rainfall from May 25 to June 1. Rainfall in the Andaman Islands is projected to be between 30 to 60 mm above normal during this period.
Current atmospheric conditions support the likelihood of this early onset. Notably, El Nino conditions are not expected to interfere with the monsoon’s arrival this year. Instead, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to enhance rainfall activity during the monsoon season. As Devendra Tripathi notes, “A positive IOD drives more moisture toward the Indian subcontinent, typically strengthening the monsoon and bringing above-average rainfall.”
In fact, there is a reported 20-40% chance of a tropical system forming north of the Andamans, which could further enhance rainfall. Such developments are crucial for agricultural activities in these regions, especially given the prevailing intense heat believed to be accelerating moisture-laden winds from the ocean toward land.
This forecast follows a trend established in previous years; in 2025, forecasts indicated an early onset of rains over Kerala that arrived sooner than expected. If current atmospheric conditions persist, officials believe that Kerala could see its first significant rains around May 25.
While the outlook appears promising for alleviating heatwave conditions and supporting agriculture, uncertainties remain regarding the exact impact of these weather patterns. The situation continues to evolve as meteorologists monitor developments closely.
