The Canadian Open in Montreal is set to feature a third-round men’s match between Casper Ruud and Joao Fonseca on Friday. This encounter is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Fonseca, who is 19 years old, has been making progress in the rankings and aims to enter the top 20 this summer. He has already secured two ATP titles. Ruud, a three-time major finalist, is known for his clay court performance, where he has won 12 of his 14 career titles. Despite this, he maintains a 58.6% career win rate on hard courts, with his other two titles also coming on this surface.
Previous Encounters and Recent Form
Fonseca and Ruud have met once before, with Fonseca leading their head-to-head record 1-0. This previous match occurred at the French Open, where Fonseca defeated Ruud in four sets. That victory was part of Fonseca’s run to his first major quarterfinal this year, during which he also overcame Novak Djokovic.
Ruud’s recent form has been inconsistent. He experienced a first-round exit at Wimbledon and won only one match at a clay event in Gstaad in July. However, he quickly recovered in Montreal, defeating Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-1, 6-2 in the second round, a player he had previously lost to. Ruud has a history of success at the Canadian Open, having reached at least the round of 16 in all five of his prior appearances, including a semifinal appearance in 2022.
Fonseca, on the other hand, advanced to the third round in Montreal after a 7-6(3), 7-5 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas. He has a 66.7% win rate on hard courts to start his career. Over the past 52 weeks, Fonseca holds a better hard court record, with 16-7, compared to Ruud’s 19-13. Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings indicate Fonseca has a 54.6% win probability for the upcoming match.
Key Match Statistics and Predictions
The previous match between Fonseca and Ruud at the French Open concluded with a score of 7-5, 7-6(8), 5-7, 6-2 in favor of Fonseca. Fonseca’s second-round match against Tsitsipas in Montreal involved 25 total games, despite being a two-set match.
When looking at hard court performance over the last 52 weeks, Ruud has won a higher percentage of service points at 68.4% compared to Fonseca’s 66.3%. However, Fonseca has an advantage in return points won, with 35.9% against Ruud’s 34.4%. In Fonseca’s seven matches against top-20 opponents in 2026, both players have won at least one set in all but two instances. The exceptions were straight-set losses to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, though the match against Sinner still reached 26 total games.
In other Canadian Open action, Alexandra Eala will face Caty McNally in Toronto. Eala, who has been gaining significant attention, needed three sets to advance past Alycia Parks in her previous match. She has now won her sixth consecutive match on hard courts, building on her recent title run in Washington. Since mid-June, Eala has a record of 12-3, with wins over players such as Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina (twice), Iga Swiatek, Naomi Osaka, and Jessica Pegula. Her three losses during this period were all against top-30 opponents.
McNally, an unseeded player, has already played two matches in the tournament, defeating Tatjana Maria and Linda Noskova. Her victory over Noskova, the world No. 7 and current Wimbledon champion, was particularly notable, with a score of 7-6(5), 6-1. McNally’s first-round match went to three sets, and both of her matches in Toronto have included a tiebreak, lasting 30 and 20 games respectively. Before this season, McNally had not beaten a top-20 opponent, but she now has two such wins, including her recent victory over Noskova and an earlier win against Victoria Mboko in Madrid. Eala has gone the distance in each of her last two matches, with 26 and 25 total games.
Source: prizepicks.com
